By Stephanie Smarrelli
The race to finals is officially on and Round 10 just blew the competition wide open.
Big wins, massive upsets and a serious shake-up at the top of the ladder have set the stage for an explosive run home.
With only a handful of rounds left, every match matters, every percentage point counts and the battle for finals spots is reaching boiling point.
Here’s how your team’s finals hopes are shaping up heading into the business end of the season.
Adelaide Thunderbirds (36 points, 121.71%)
Current ladder position: 1st
To come:
GIANTS (Away)
Melbourne Vixens (Home)
NSW Swifts (Away)
Sunshine Coast Lightning (Away)
The Thunderbirds are flying high after ripping top spot away from the reigning premiers.
Finals are locked in and now it’s all about securing the double chance.
The Champion Data Finals Predictor has the Thunderbirds tipped for a top-two finish, but there’s no room to ease off with heavyweight clashes still to come.
The Thunderbirds are in prime position to feature in this year's Major Semi Final.
First up is a clash against the GIANTS and despite sitting bottom of the ladder, they’ve proven they can push the TBirds all the way after only narrowly losing their last meeting.
Then they’ve got the Vixens, Swifts and Lightning, all three will pose a challenge but TBirds fans would like their odds to clean sweep the rest of the season.
Melbourne Vixens (36 points, 112.99%)
Current ladder position: 2nd
To come:
NSW Swifts (Home)
Adelaide Thunderbirds (Away)
Melbourne Mavericks (Home)
West Coast Fever (Home)
The reigning premiers have finally been knocked off balance.
Their shock loss to the Lightning snapped a dominant streak but dangerous teams don’t stay down for long.
The Vixens are finals-bound and still firmly in the hunt for a top-two finish, but their run home is brutal.
A surging Swifts side awaits this weekend before clashes with every other team currently sitting inside the top four.
The Vixens have a tough month ahead.
If the Vixens can survive this gauntlet, they’ll head into finals battle-tested and ready for another title charge.
West Coast Fever (24 points, 102.98%)
Current ladder position: 3rd
To come:
Firebirds (Away)
Mavericks (Home)
GIANTS (Away)
Vixens (Away)
Are cracks starting to show over in the west?
The Fever still sit two games clear inside the top four, but recent losses have opened the door for the chasing pack and suddenly the pressure is building in the west.
Three of their final four games come away from home, and while finals remain likely, nothing is guaranteed.
Their clashes against the bottom two sides should steady the ship, but looming battles with the Mavericks and Vixens could decide whether they hold onto a top-three finish or slide backwards at the worst possible time.
And with the Mavericks charging, third spot is far from safe.
Melbourne Mavericks (20 points, 102.61%)
Current ladder position: 4th
To come:
Lightning (Home)
Fever (Away)
Vixens (Away)
Firebirds (Home)
Mavericks fans, dare to dream.
The Mavericks are on track for their first finals appearance.
A historic finals appearance is right there for the taking.
Despite a loss to the Thunderbirds last week, the Mavs remain firmly in the premiership hunt and could still shake up the ladder in a massive way.
The equation is simple; beat the teams above them and they could surge into the top three maybe even higher.
The danger? One slip-up could undo everything.
This weekend’s clash with the Lightning is enormous. A win strengthens their grip on fourth, but a loss could throw their finals hopes into chaos.
Sunshine Coast Lightning (16 points, 96.47%)
Current ladder position: 5th
To come:
Mavericks (Away)
GIANTS (Home)
Firebirds (Away)
Thunderbirds (Home)
The Lightning have sparked to life at exactly the right time.
After stunning the reigning premiers, belief will be surging and suddenly finals are back within reach.
They’re still chasing from outside the top four, but momentum can be a dangerous thing in the closing rounds.
Lightning are fighting to break into the top.
This weekend’s showdown with the Mavericks could define their season. Win that, and the door swings wide open.
Games against the GIANTS and Firebirds are must-wins, while a final-round clash with the ladder-leading Thunderbirds could loom as a blockbuster decider in their finals’ destiny.
NSW Swifts (16 points, 95.93%)
Current ladder position: 6th
To come:
Vixens (Away)
Firebirds (Home)
Thunderbirds (Home)
GIANTS (Away)
Count the Swifts out at your own risk.
Round 10 was a reminder that this side still has plenty of fight left but the road ahead is brutal.
To crack the top four, they’ll likely need to take down both of the current top-two teams and also leapfrog the Lightning and Mavericks on the ladder.
They should have what it takes to get the job done against the Firebirds and GIANTS but they’ll need to upset at least one of the top dogs to stand a real chance.
This weekend’s clash against the Vixens will be their first test and could make or break their season.
Win and the finals dream stays alive. Lose and the door may slam shut.
Queensland Firebirds (12 points, 92.2%)
Current ladder position: 7th
To come:
Fever (Home)
Swifts (Away)
Lightning (Home)
Mavericks (Away)
The odds of the Firebirds making finals are slim, they’d have to Steven Bradbury it at this point.
The Firebirds still can play finals but the door is closing.
But don’t expect them to fade quietly.
The Firebirds could become the ultimate spoiler in the race to finals, with every remaining opponent fighting for something huge.
They pushed the Fever all the way in their last meeting and would love nothing more than to derail them this weekend.
And with clashes against the Swifts, Lightning and Mavericks still to come, the Firebirds could have a massive say in who survives the home-and-away season.
GIANTS (0 points, 82.12%)
Current ladder position: 8th
To come:
Thunderbirds (Home)
Lightning (Away)
Fever (Home)
Swifts (Home)
The GIANTS may be out of finals contention but they’re far from done.
With nothing to lose, they could become one of the most dangerous teams in the competition over the final month.
The orange tsunami has been building, and after pushing the Thunderbirds to the limit earlier in the season, they’ll believe they can cause chaos this weekend.
Every opponent they face still has something massive on the line and the GIANTS would love nothing more than to ruin a few finals dreams before the season ends.
