By Matt Fotia
We all knew it would happen, but finally, in Round 12 the Fever leapfrogged the Swifts to take top spot on the ladder thanks to a big win against the Lightning and a shock victory from the Mavericks.
So, what do the Lightning have to do to make finals?
And will the Karntu win against the Vixens hand them a home Minor Semi-Final?
Get your head around all the permutations and complications of the final two rounds with the return of The Run Home below.
West Coast Fever (40 points, 108.8%)
Current ladder position: 1st
Round 12 HCF Team Health Score: 229
To come:
GIANTS (Home)
Melbourne Vixens (Home)
The perfect weekend for Fever fans.
The girls in green made easy work of their trip to UniSC Arena to claim a 10th straight victory and would’ve got back to the hotel in time to watch the Mavericks defeat the Swifts and hand them top spot.
A percentage boosting win against the GIANTS this weekend could virtually lock in a home Major Semi-Final before their final match against the Vixens, but on current form there isn’t a netball team on the planet the Fever would fear.
NSW Swifts (36 points, 108.3%)
Current ladder position: 2nd
Round 12 HCF Team Health Score: 171
To come:
Sunshine Coast Lightning (Home)
Queensland Firebirds (Away)
Started well and finished okay, but there wasn’t much else to write home about for the Swifts, as they relinquished top spot for the first time since Round 3.
Briony Akle’s side will now need the Fever to lose at least one of their remaining two games to claim the minor premiership.
The out of form Swifts are still mathematically a chance of falling out of the top two, but given they have a sizeable percentage buffer and play the lowly Firebirds in the final round, you can bank on them nabbing the double chance.
Melbourne Vixens (28 points, 101.4%)
Current ladder position: 3rd
Round 12 HCF Team Health Score: 141
To come:
Queensland Firebirds (Home)
West Coast Fever (Away)
Five losses to the Karntu in a row for the Vixens, who will be bitterly disappointed by their final quarter fade out on Sunday.
Not only did the loss all but rule out their (slim) chances of making the top two, it also created the very real possibility they will have to return to the Adelaide Entertainment Centre for the Minor Semi-Final, with both the Vixens and the Karntu on track to finish on 32 points at the end of the regular season.
It means their Round 13 match up with the Firebirds will now become a two-pronged mission.
First off, bank the four points and lock in a finals appearance. Then grow that percentage.
Alternatively, the Vixens can guarantee a home final with victory against the Fever in Round 14.
Has Simone McKinnis got a couple more tricks up her sleeve?Tarntanya Karntu (24 points, 104%)
Current ladder position: 4th
Round 12 HCF Team Health Score: 181
To come:
Melbourne Mavericks (Home)
Sunshine Coast Lightning (Home)
Back on the winners list with an inspiring performance against one of the competition’s form sides.
That’s how you send a message to the rest of the league.
Tania Obst’s side are back in the top four thanks to their three-goal win against the Vixens and the Fever’s big defeat of the Lightning and can now start thinking about hosting a final.
If the Karntu win both of their remaining games, they’ll finish on 32 points and will (barring a huge swing) finish above the Vixens on percentage.
Even if the Karntu lose to the Mavericks this weekend, by defeating the Lightning in Round 14 should be enough to guarantee a third straight finals appearance for the Karntu, as it will limit the Lightning to 28 points and their superior percentage would see them through.
Plenty to play for.
Sunshine Coast Lightning (24 points, 102.4%)
Current ladder position: 5th
Round 12 HCF Team Health Score: 165
To come:
NSW Swifts (Away)
Tarntanya Karntu (Away)
It’s now or never for the Lightning.
Saturday’s big loss to the Fever finally pushed them out of the top four and has once again muddied their path to the finals.
Of course, it is still in their hands.
If the Lightning can defeat the equally wobbly Swifts this weekend and win on the road against the Karntu, they will make finals and could even host one.
Defeat to the Swifts this weekend will make things tougher, but not impossible.
They would either need the Mavericks to do them a favour this weekend or defeat the Karntu by enough of a margin to overtake the reigning premiers on percentage.
All is not lost, despite their poor form.
The Lightning need to find form quickly.Melbourne Mavericks (16 points, 95.8%)
Current ladder position: 6th
Round 12 HCF Team Health Score: 208
To come:
Tarntanya Karntu (Away)
GIANTS (Away)
The Mavericks might not be able to make the finals in 2025, but they’ll certainly do their best to shape them.
Their win against the Swifts has cleared a path for the Fever to claim the minor premiership, and their Round 13 fixture against the Karntu presents them with a chance to further open the door for the Sunshine Coast Lightning.
GIANTS (16 points, 92%)
Current ladder position: 7th
Round 12 HCF Team Health Score: 188
To come:
West Coast Fever (Away)
Melbourne Mavericks (Home)
The GIANTS could do their cross-town rivals a huge favour this weekend.
If Julie Fitzgerald’s side can continue their strong end to the season with an upset victory against the Fever, they will bring the Swifts right back into minor premiership calculations.
Lose and they’ll still fancy their chances to end the season on a high note with a home game against the Mavericks to close out 2025.
Queensland Firebirds (8 points, 89%)
Current ladder position: 8th
Round 12 HCF Team Health Score: 177
To come:
Melbourne Vixens (Away)
NSW Swifts (Home)
The possibility of jeopardising the seasons of long-term rivals the Vixens and the Swifts will be the only thing motivating the Firebirds for this final fortnight of netball.
Defeating the Vixens would throw a large cat amongst the pigeons when it comes to the race for third and fourth, while victory against the Swifts in Round 14 will sap plenty of momentum from their fiercest foe on the eve of the finals.
Lara Dunkley led from the front for the Firebirds in Round 12.Predicted Ladder
1. West Coast Fever – 48 points, 109.3%
2. NSW Swifts – 44 points, 108.8%
3. Tarntanya Karntu – 32 points, 104.7%
4. Melbourne Vixens – 32 points, 101.7%
5. Sunshine Coast Lightning – 24 points, 100.9%
6. GIANTS – 20 points, 92.5%
7. Melbourne Mavericks – 16 points, 95.3%
8. Queensland Firebirds – 8 points, 88.5%
Predicted first week of finals.
Major Semi Final
West Coast Fever v NSW Swifts
Minor Semi Final
Tarntanya Karntu v Melbourne Vixens
To get your own HCF Team Health Score™ and for the chance to win a SSN Grand Final Experience and more* play the HCF Team Health Score game now.
Disclaimer: * Competition closes 11.59pm 13 July 2025 AEST. Full T&Cs visit hcf.com.au/netball. Authorised under SA Permit T25/490 and ACT Permit TP 25/00643
