The countdown to finals is well and truly on.
A blockbuster round of results has set the stage for a thrilling finish to the regular season, with every match carrying major finals implications.
Here’s how your team’s run home shapes up as the competition reaches boiling point.
Adelaide Thunderbirds (44 points, 127.6%)
Current ladder position: 1st
To come:
NSW Swifts (Away)
Sunshine Coast Lightning (Away)
The Adelaide Thunderbirds all but cemented their spot as minor premiers after a statement 19-goal win over the Melbourne Vixens in Round 12.
The Thunderbirds have secured a spot in the Major Semi Final.
Dismantling their biggest competition will give the side plenty of confidence heading into the Finals Series and last few rounds.
On paper, matches against the Swifts and Lightning are both winnable, but neither opponent will be short on motivation with their finals hopes hanging by a thread.
The double chance is already secured for the Thunderbirds, and a home Major Semi Final is looking very likely if they can maintain their current form across the next two games.
Melbourne Vixens (40 points, 109.4%)
Current ladder position: 2nd
To come:
Melbourne Mavericks (Home)
West Coast Fever (Home)
The reigning premiers have a top-two finish, but they’ll rue their lost opportunities against the Thunderbirds in Round 12.
The loss paired with a challenging run home makes a return trip to Adelaide for the Major Semi Final likely in a few weeks' time.
The Vixens are will face the Thunderbirds in the Major Semi Final.
Against Thunderbirds, the Vixens had no answers, they’ll need to respond quickly before taking on a Mavericks side that are hitting their stride and eying off their first finals appearance.
Their last meeting with the Mavs delivered one of the games of the season, going into extra time and with even more on the line this weekend another thriller could be on the cards.
Then they’ve got Fever who could be playing to lock in a home Minor Semi Final or be fighting to simply hold onto their spot in the top.
With the stakes high, the Vixens are going to have a big say in how the bottom half of the top four shapes up for finals across the next two weeks.
West Coast Fever (28 points, 104.7%)
Current ladder position: 3rd
To come:
GIANTS (Away)
Vixens (Away)
Fever’s fortress fell to the Mavs on the weekend in a game that sent shockwaves through the competition.
Next up Fever have a couple of trips away from RAC Arena which may not be the worst thing for them given their recent struggles at home.
They’ve got the GIANTS up first in a match that will be an opportunity for them to bounce back, lock in their finals spot and importantly boost their percentage.
If Fever win this weekend, they'll lock in finals.
There’s only 0.6 per cent separating Fever and the Mavericks on the ladder meaning every goal could prove crucial in determining whether they host a Minor Semi Final or even play finals at all.
Win this week and they’re in but lose and they’ll need to win a showdown with the Vixens in Round 14 who will be desperate to re-discover their momentum ahead of a premiership defence.
Melbourne Mavericks (28 points, 104.1%)
Current ladder position: 4th
To come:
Vixens (Away)
Firebirds (Home)
The Mavericks spoiled Fever’s last home game of the regular season on the weekend, but they didn’t do so by a large enough margin to leapfrog them on the ladder.
While the win was an enormous step forward for the side who are closer than ever to playing their first finals series it leaves them vulnerable over the next two rounds.
Their run home features two remaining matches that are well within reach based on previous meetings and they could even host a Minor Semi Final.
Their first challenge will be a wounded Vixens outfit looking to bounce back from a heavy defeat. The last clash between the two sides went to extra time, underlining just how little separates them.
The Mavericks fell short on that occasion, with the devastating ACL injury to Tara Hinchliffe proving a major disruption, but they’ll enter this contest better prepared and fully focused on securing a breakthrough finals berth.
The Mavericks are one win away from playing finals.
A win against the Vixens will make history and lock them in for finals but a loss could mean their Round 14 clash with the Firebirds is do-or-die.
The Mavericks will back themselves against the Firebirds, but their previous meeting was decided by just one goal.
Sunshine Coast Lightning (20 points, 98.4%)
Current ladder position: 5th
To come:
Firebirds (Away)
Thunderbirds (Home)
The equation is simply for the Lightning; win the next two games or it’s season over.
Even two wins on the trot may not be enough for the Sunny Coast side to make finals as they’ll be relying on the Mavericks or Fever to lose a game and will also need to beat them on ladder percentage.
Lightning need to win this weekend to stay in the finals race.
This weekend’s Queensland derby against the Firebirds is essentially an elimination final with a loss ending any chance of making the top four.
Then they’ll face the daunting task of playing the ladder-leading Thunderbirds in Round 14.
NSW Swifts (20 points, 96.1%)
Current ladder position: 6th
To come:
Thunderbirds (Home)
GIANTS (Away)
Like Lightning, the Swifts have no choice but to win this weekend to stay in the finals race.
A loss to the Thunderbirds will rule them out and history suggest the challenge will be immense after their previous defeat to the ladder leaders.
But desperation can be a powerful force in sport, and the Swifts will be hoping to produce the upset of the season.
The Swifts will be relying on the results around them falling their way this weekend.
If they can pull it off this week then a final-round NSW derby against the GIANTS presents an opportunity to force their way in.
But even with two wins, they’ll need favourable results elsewhere and a significant percentage boost to force their way into the top four.
Queensland Firebirds (12 points, 90.5%)
Current ladder position: 7th
To come:
Lightning (Home)
Mavericks (Away)
The Firebirds may be out of finals contention, but they remain one of the competition’s biggest wildcards.
With nothing to lose, they have the chance to shape the finals race over the next fortnight.
Finals are out of reach for the Firebirds.
A win against the Lightning this weekend would end their Queensland rivals’ finals hopes on the spot.
Then comes a clash with the Mavericks that could carry massive significance depending on how results fall this round.
The Firebirds won’t be playing finals themselves, but they could still determine who does and they’ll be determined to end the season on a high.
GIANTS (0 points, 78.7%)
Current ladder position: 8th
To come:
Fever (Home)
Swifts (Home)
The GIANTS find themselves in the unenviable position of entering the final two rounds winless, with the wooden spoon already secured.
Their run home is a tough one against two sides with everything to play for.
The GIANTS are still searching for their first win.
While they’ve shown flashes of their potential throughout the season, consistency has been their biggest challenge.
But that’s exactly why they’re dangerous, if everything clicks, they could challenge both the Fever and the Swifts but they’ll need to catch them off guard.
Fever are one win away from locking in a finals berth, and an upset this weekend could throw their campaign into chaos heading into Round 14.
The Swifts could also arrive in the final round still chasing a top-four spot, and there would be no greater satisfaction for the GIANTS than ending their rivals’ season in the NSW Derby.
