By Matt Fotia
Round 12 was built as a big one and boy did it deliver.
The Thunderbirds sent another reminder of their ruthless nature and preserved their hopes of a minor premiership afloat, while the Mavericks last gasp win over the Lightning kept the race for fourth alive for not only themselves but a resurgent Firebirds outfit.
Take a look at the run home from Round 12 below.
Melbourne Vixens (40pts, 112.3 %)
Current ladder position: 1st
Chance of playing finals: Locked in
To come:
West Coast Fever (Home)
Queensland Firebirds (Away)
Last week the Vixens looked unstoppable. This week they were well and truly stopped, going down by 15 goals to the Thunderbirds, their worst performance of the season thus far.
The loss had no major bearing on their final ladder position, with the supercomputer having predicted it, but the margin does leave the Vixens vulnerable to losing not just top spot, but the double chance in general.
The Vixens currently sit just two percentage points above the Fever but were they to lose Sunday’s blockbuster against Dan Ryan’s squad that gap would likely be closed, setting up a straight shootout between the two sides in Round 14.
Adelaide Thunderbirds (36pts, 122.7%)
Current ladder position: 2nd
Chance of playing finals: Locked in
To come:
NSW Swifts (Away)
Sunshine Coast Lightning (Home)
They may be a game off the ladder leaders, but you’d be hard pressed to not have the Thunderbirds as premiership favourites at the moment.
They’ve won their last four games by 15 goals or more, with two of those wins coming against fellow contenders the Fever and the Vixens.
They finish the home and away season with a trip to Ken Rosewall Arena to play the Swifts before rounding it out with a home game against the Lightning and it’s almost impossible to imagine them losing either one.
We still expect the Vixens to cling onto top spot, but the Thunderbirds are the team to beat with just over a month to go in 2024.
The Thunderbirds look odds on to go back-to-back on current formWest Coast Fever (36pts, 110.2%)
Current ladder position: 3rd
Chance of playing finals: Locked in
To come:
Melbourne Vixens (Away)
Melbourne Mavericks (Home)
Oh, to be a fly on the wall in the Fever rooms at half time on Sunday.
After suffering a shock loss to the Firebirds in Round 11 the Fever were on track to lose another very winnable game against the GIANTS, down 41-33 at the main break, before turning the tide to run out three goal winners off the back of a dominant third quarter effort where they kept the GIANTS to just nine goals.
The win keeps their top two chances alive.
If the Fever can defeat the Vixens at John Cain Arena on Sunday, they’ll pull level on points and set up a shootout for the top two.
The Fever play after the Vixens in Round 14 so will be in the box seat should that situation play out but given their one-dimensional attacking profile at the moment it’s hard to imagine them defeating the Vixens away from home this weekend.
Sunshine Coast Lightning (20pts, 99.9%)
Current ladder position: 4th
Chance of playing finals: 64%
To come:
Queensland Firebirds (Away)
Adelaide Thunderbirds (Away)
The Lightning were 81 seconds away from stamping their finals tickets. Instead, they’re trapped in a neck-and-neck race with the Mavericks for fourth place.
The supercomputer had budgeted for the Lightning to lose this game all along and fortunately for Belinda Reynolds’ troops the one goal margin meant the Mavericks were unable to close the percentage gap between the two sides.
Victory in this weekend’s match up with crosstown rivals the Queensland Firebirds should be enough to keep the Mavericks at bay, but it’s getting a little too close for comfort now for the Lightning.
Melbourne Mavericks (20pts, 90.9%)
Current ladder position: 5th
Chance of playing finals: 27%
To come:
GIANTS (Away)
West Coast Fever (Home)
Gabby Sinclair you star.
The former Collingwood goalers two crucial super shots have kept the Mavericks finals flame burning, with their one goal win pulling them level on points with the Lightning with two games to play.
Given the aforementioned percentage gap between the Mavericks and the Lightning, Tracey Neville’s side will more than likely need to finish above the Lightning on points to claim fourth spot.
To do this the Mavericks will either need to win both of their games, which given the Fever’s recent wobbles isn’t out of the realms of possibility or hope the Lightning trip up to the Firebirds this weekend.
The Mavericks are still alive in 2024Queensland Firebirds (16pts, 91.2%)
Current ladder position: 6th
Chance of playing finals: 8%
To come:
Sunshine Coast Lightning (Home)
Melbourne Vixens (Home)
Katie Walker joked that she might not turn up this week to maintain her 100% record as Firebirds Head Coach.
She needn’t have worried, as her Firebirds outfit made it two wins on the bounce, outlasting the Swifts in a nailbiter.
Incredibly the Firebirds are now somewhat back in the finals mix after the Lightning’s loss to the Mavericks on Saturday night. If they can make it three in a row this weekend against the Lightning, it would move them level on points with their Sunshine Coast counterparts and a game behind the Mavericks (assuming they defeat the GIANTS) heading into the final round.
It’s a longshot, but given the Firebirds looked nailed on for the wooden spoon a fortnight ago, you wouldn’t put anything past them.
NSW Swifts (12pts, 92.9%)
Current ladder position: 7th
Chance of playing finals: <1%
To come:
Adelaide Thunderbirds (Home)
GIANTS (Away)
Sometimes it just isn’t your year.
2024 will be a season to forget for the NSW Swifts, who have been unable to get any sort of momentum into their play, let alone their season.
Mathematically they’re still a chance of playing finals in 2024, but if we’re being pragmatic, the Swifts will be looking to finish the year with a strong fortnight (and hopefully a win against the GIANTS) and turn their attention towards 2025.
It's been a tough year for the SwiftsGIANTS (12pts, 87.4%)
Current ladder position: 8th
Chance of playing finals: 0%
To come:
Melbourne Mavericks (Home)
NSW Swifts (Home)
Another GIANTS game, another missed opportunity.
The GIANTS were scintillating in the first half against the Fever, jumping out to an eight-goal advantage at the main break, but managed just nine goals in the third quarter to hand the Fever the win.
Had the GIANTS won you could’ve made a case for them making an unlikely charge for the finals, but like their friends across the hall, their 2024 season is over.
Predicted Ladder
1. Melbourne Vixens – 48 points, 113.2%
2. Adelaide Thunderbirds – 44 points, 122.3%
3. West Coast Fever – 40 points, 108.9%
4. Sunshine Coast Lightning – 24 points, 99.9%
5. Melbourne Mavericks – 24 points, 91.9%
6. Queensland Firebirds – 16 points, 92.9%
7. GIANTS Netball – 16 points, 91.7%
8. NSW Swifts – 12 points, 88.8%
Predicted first week of finals.
Major Semi Final
Melbourne Vixens v Adelaide Thunderbirds
Minor Semi Final
West Coast Fever v Sunshine Coast Lightning
