Lightning’s last chance

By Stephanie Smarrelli 
 

With finals on the horizon, every game is a crucial step toward securing a coveted spot in the league's biggest match. 
 
For half the competition, there’s only two matches left to play before it’s game over. 

For the other half the fight for glory will continue. 

This weekend’s results could shape who has a real shot of lifting the trophy at Rod Laver Arena on August 2. 

The top two teams are already locked in for the finals series but the battle for third and fourth continues to intensify.  

Sitting on the outskirts for the first time this season, it’s now or never for Lightning. 
 
And this weekend, they’ve got a tough task against the Swifts. 

Both teams are looking to bounce back from losses, but their positions couldn’t be more different. 

 
The Swifts are guaranteed to play finals but they’re fighting for the right to host the Major Semi Final and secure an important double chance. 

While Lightning are competing to earn their spot in the top four. 
 
The Swifts have been the team to beat all season, but sides have started figuring them out. Now it’s their turn to dig deep and fight back. 

After last weekend’s loss to the Mavs, they’ll do everything in their power to stop Lightning from winning. 
 
The Swifts were overwhelmed by the Mavs in an electrifying contest; they’ll need to find their composure if they want to regain momentum heading into finals.  

In their Round 7 clash against Lightning, the Helen Housby and Grace Nweke combination was on song for the Swifts. 

Housby slotted four Super Shots and had 21 goal assists to her name while Grace put up 50 goals at 89 per cent accuracy. 

Sarah Klau was also prolific in defence (four gains, three intercepts) adding to her side’s pressure across the court. 

The challenge will be for Lightning to match the Swifts this weekend by converting their gains.  

Ash Ervin and Tara Hincliffe were both strong against Nweke and Housby in Round 7 but the Lightnings’ gain to goal ratio sat at 64 per cent compared to the Swifts’ 73 per cent. 

And last weekend against Fever, Lightning’s gain to goal ratio was a dismal 33 per cent with most of their general play turnovers coming from the hands of the attackers. 

In Round 12, the Mavericks laid out the blueprint for winning ball against the Swifts and the Lightning will no doubt be going back to watch. 

But they’ll need to maintain control and convert to win the game. 

Plus, will Cara Koenen take the court? 
 
That’s the big question for Lightning fans and yes, it is the same question we asked ahead of their last clash. 
 
The goaler has been battling an ongoing foot injury throughout the season. 

She's been ruled out late on game day the last two weeks. 
 
In Round 12, Steph Fretwell and Reilley Batcheldor shouldered the shooting load and while they both have prowess from range, Fretwell’s overall accuracy was down at 65 per cent. 

The Lightning skipper will be determined not to have two bad games in a row, expect her to come out firing against the Swifts. 
 
Lightning are only a 42 per cent chance of making finals according to Champion Data’s ladder simulator meaning it’s all on the line for them this weekend. 
 

REST OF THE ROUND 

It’s First Nations Round this weekend and teams will step onto the court in their First Nations Round dresses ahead of NAIDOC Week. 

While the beautiful and meaningful designs will be the centre of attention once again, the stakes will be high across the competition with finals only two weeks away. 

Tarntanya Karntu (Adelaide Thunderbirds) will face the Melbourne Mavericks. 

The Mavs are on a roll, with back-to-back wins for the first time this season.  

 
After taking down the Swifts, they’ll be feeling confident with nothing to lose. 

For the Thunderbirds, it’s a huge weekend.  
 
They’ve climbed back into the top four but need to stay there to keep their threepeat dreams alive. 
 
Then the Firebirds head to Melbourne to battle the Vixens. 

On the bottom of the ladder a loss this week will cement the Firebirds as wooden spooners, but a win gives them a chance to move up the ladder in the final round. 

It’ll be a challenge against a fired-up Vixens who are sitting in the top four wanting to carry momentum into finals.  

Their spot in the top isn’t set in stone but a win against the Firebirds will likely be enough to lock it in. 

And closing out the round, Fever are chasing a historic 11th straight SSN victory this weekend. 

They’ll face the GIANTS, who might be sitting seventh on the ladder, but shouldn’t be underestimated.  
 
They almost toppled the Swifts a few weeks ago and have beaten the reigning premiers twice.