The HCF Run Home from Round 10

By Matt Fotia 

And just like that, the SSN finals race has been blown wide open once again. 

The Vixens got the ball rolling with a nail-biting two goal win over the Swifts to further enhance their finals credentials, before the GIANTS closed out Round 10 with an uber-impressive 10 goal thumping of the Sunshine Coast, throwing the Lightning into finals jeopardy. 

Get your head around all the permutations and complications of the final five rounds with the return of The Run Home below. 

NSW Swifts (32 points, 109.2%) 
Current ladder position: 1st  
Round 9 HCF Team Health Score: 156 

To come:  
GIANTS (Home) 
Melbourne Mavericks (Away) 
Sunshine Coast Lightning (Home) 
Queensland Firebirds (Away) 

Last week we pondered whether cracks were starting to appear at the Swifts. 

This we can confirm they most certainly are. 

The Swifts made it back-to-back losses against the Vixens, despite the best efforts of super shot sharpshooter Helen Housby, and are now clinging to top spot by less than two percentage points.  

Alarming, the Swifts HCF Team Health Score has hovered around the 160 mark the past three weeks, well down on their season average of 187. 

They have a fairly soft run home though and should still finish inside the top two at seasons end. 

West Coast Fever (32 points, 107.3%) 
Current ladder position: 2nd   
Round 9 HCF Team Health Score: 175 

To come:  
Adelaide Thunderbirds (Home) 
Sunshine Coast Lightning (Away) 
GIANTS (Home) 
Melbourne Vixens (Home) 

Eight in a row for the Fever, who are now just percentage off top spot, a long way from their 0-2 start to the season. 

They did their work early on Saturday, jumping out to an 11-goal half time lead before shifting into cruise control for the second half to run out six goal winners. 

Once again Dan Ryan was able to give all his players decent court time as they continue their build towards the business end of the season. 

Their final month is tricky on paper with games against the Thunderbirds, Lightning, Vixens and an inform GIANTS, but given their recent form it’s hard to see them missing the top two. 

Sunshine Coast Lightning (24 points, 105.8%) 
Current ladder position: 3rd  
Round 9 HCF Team Health Score: 197 

To come: 
Melbourne Vixens (Home) 
West Coast Fever (Home) 
NSW Swifts (Away) 
Adelaide Thunderbirds (Away) 

Suddenly things look a whole lot harder for the Lightning. 

Despite maintaining a healthy HCF Team Health Score (the Lightning average 201, the highest in the league), their loss to the GIANTS on Sunday has them facing the very real possibility of missing the finals. 

Belinda Reynolds’ side currently sit one game inside the top four, but they will have to break their recent hoodoo of not being able to beat a top four side to guarantee a second straight finals berth. 

One win would likely bring percentage into the equation, while two wins (32 points) should be enough to be assured of a top four place. 

This weekend's game against the Lightning and their Round 14 match against the Thunderbirds loom as deciders, while their games against the Swifts and Fever could be viewed as ‘free hits’. 

Melbourne Vixens (24 points, 101.6%) 
Current ladder position: 4th   
Round 9 HCF Team Health Score: 181 
 
To come:  
Sunshine Coast Lightning (Away) 
Adelaide Thunderbirds (Home) 
Queensland Firebirds (Home) 
West Coast Fever (Away) 

Four in a row for the Vixens, after they held off a fast-finishing Swifts to draw level with the Lightning on six wins and hang on to fourth place for another week. 

They’ll need to maintain the rage though.  

The Vixens have a lower percentage than both the Lightning and the Thunderbirds, so will need to win at least two of their remaining fixtures to be confident of playing finals netball. 

The next fortnight is enormous for Simone McKinnis’ crew, given they take on their closest rivals in the Lightning and Thunderbirds, while their Round 13 match against the Firebirds should provide them an opportunity to give their percentage a much-needed boost. 

Adelaide Thunderbirds (20 points, 105.2%) 
Current ladder position: 5th  
Round 9 HCF Team Health Score: 208 

To come: 
West Coast Fever (Away) 
Melbourne Vixens (Away) 
Melbourne Mavericks (Home) 
Sunshine Coast Lightning (Home) 

Other than a slight third quarter scare, it was back to business for the Thunderbirds on Saturday as Tania Obst’s side grabbed four crucial points with a seven-goal win against the Firebirds. 

Like the Lightning and Vixens, the Thunderbirds finals destiny remains in their own hands given their final month of fixtures. 

One win against either of Lightning or Vixens could be enough (assuming the Thunderbirds defeat the Mavericks), while victory against both would all but assure them of a spot in the final four and, given their healthy percentage, the right to host the minor semi-final. 

GIANTS (12 points, 91%) 
Current ladder position: 6th 
HCF Round 9 Team Health Score: 252 

To come: 
NSW Swifts (Away) 
Queensland Firebirds (Away) 
West Coast Fever (Away) 
Melbourne Mavericks (Home) 

For weeks we’ve been told the GIANTS were starting to put the pieces together, and on Sunday, we saw another example of the strides being made by Julie Fitzgerald’s side. 

The GIANTS were unstoppable against the Lightning, netting 63 goals to three quarter time on route to a second straight victory, led by the performances of Harten, Dwyer, Price and Kopua. 

Notably, the GIANTS topped the HCF Team Health Score rankings for Round 10 with 252, pushing past the 200 barrier for the second straight week. 

The GIANTS now seem a safe bet to finish the season with at least five wins and could still play a major role in influencing the final make-up of the top four, with crucial fixtures against the Swifts (Round 11) and Fever (Round 13) still to come. 

Melbourne Mavericks (8 points, 93%) 
Current ladder position: 7th 
Round 9 HCF Team Health Score: 181 

To come: 
Queensland Firebirds (Away) 
NSW Swifts (Home) 
Adelaide Thunderbirds (Away) 
GIANTS (Away) 

Rinse and repeat for the Mavericks, who started slowly against the Fever before showing signs of their best late in the game to put some respect on the scoreboard. 

Sunday’s game against the Firebirds provides them a huge opportunity to get back on the winners list, before they turn their attention to shaking up the top four race with games against the Swifts and Thunderbirds. 

 
Queensland Firebirds (8 points, 89.2%) 
Current ladder position: 8th 
Round 9 HCF Team Health Score: 156 

To come:  
Melbourne Mavericks (Home) 
GIANTS (Home) 
Melbourne Vixens (Away) 
NSW Swifts (Home) 

A final quarter fade out cost the Firebirds an unlikely victory on Saturday evening, after they put together three strong quarters to test the Thunderbirds on their home court. 

The weekend against the Mavericks looms as their last chance to join the winners circle in 2025, especially given the recent uptick in the GIANTS form and their own faltering HCF Team Health Score, which has hovered around the 150 mark for the last month. 

 

Predicted Ladder 

1. NSW Swifts – 48 points, 110.1% 

2. West Coast Fever – 48 points, 107.6% 

3. Melbourne Vixens – 32 points, 101.7% 

4. Adelaide Thunderbirds – 28 points, 104.2% 

5. Sunshine Coast Lightning – 28 points, 102.9% 

6. GIANTS – 20 points, 93.4% 

7. Melbourne Mavericks – 12 points, 92.7% 

8. Queensland Firebirds – 8 points, 89.1% 

 

Predicted first week of finals. 

Major Semi Final 
NSW Swifts v West Coast Fever 

Minor Semi Final 
Melbourne Vixens v Adelaide Thunderbirds 

 

To get your own HCF Team Health Score™ and for the chance to win a SSN Grand Final Experience and more* play the HCF Team Health Score game now. 

Disclaimer: * Competition closes 11.59pm 13 July 2025 AEST. Full T&Cs visit hcf.com.au/netball. Authorised under SA Permit T25/490 and ACT Permit TP 25/00643